The sky is NOT falling! Turn off the TV!

No, the sky is not falling and is not going to in the foreseeable future.
Despite the words of pundits and prognosticators on virtually every TV channel these days, this is not a realistic assessment of where the American economy is headed.

And more importantly, those who believe everything they hear help to perpetuate what could become a self-fulfilling prophecy - and that is the frightening part of what's been happening in recent months. We know of one operator who laid off an employee - not because business was so bad, but because he wanted to "be prepared" for what might lie ahead.

A friend and I were discussing this last night offer dinner at the bar of Legal Sea Foods' restaurant on Boston harbor. It's one of those restaurants that always seems to be busy, and while it was quiet when I arrived around 6:30, it quickly got fuller.

This in itself tells me that on a chilly Wed. night, people are still finding it's a 'fine time to dine' or a fine time to gather with friends over a glass of fine and a bowl of chowder.

The University of Chicago Alumni Assocation in Boston recently had an emeritus professor of economics, Robert Aliber, as a guest speaker. The room was absolutely packed.

Professor Aliber spoke a year ago, predicting the course of the Dow and other economic indicators and all of his predictions, it seems, were one that came to pass.

This year, with an economy that sometimes feels like a nightmare, many apparently felt it was even more important to hear what he said.
Speaking about Iceland's difficulties this year, he noted that in that country, the cod are "still running nicely, it still has hydro and geo-thermal power and human capital. Renegotiating debt contracts will take a year. But, the real assets are still there and the same is true in the United States."

The year ahead, he believes, "will be difficult with more bankruptcies and foreclosures. But the decline will diminish after the first quarter of 2009."

After a year of no growth, the economy will turn positive, Aliber forecasts. "The economy of the world is...just stalled," he says. "We'll come out of this restructuring and see growth of three to four percent."

The forecast was heartening. Those who cackle and flap will merely make the situation all the worse. This is a time to evaluate how to move through hard times most effectively without panic. And it's going to be a 'fine time to dine"!

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Tags: dining, economic, forecast, outlook


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Comment by susan holaday on December 8, 2008 at 9:41am
Couldn't agree more, but I have the same bias! Still, panic never leads to anything except making a bad situation worse. And you could make a case for doing more advertising/marketing in bad times because you need to get your brand/products out there in front of more people who might have a need for them, if not immediately, then down the road when they do. Otherwise, when the need arises, they'll go to those sources that have left some kind of impression with them through advertising, presence at trade shows, etc.
Comment by Paul King on December 8, 2008 at 9:34am
As a trade magazine editor, I must admit a certain bias when it comes to this, but I fail to understand why, when the economy gets tight, foodservice manufacturers and suppliers fold up their ad budgets quicker than an unlicensed New York City street vendor makes his cart disappear. What is your alternate marketing strategy? You mean there is none? Then how do you plan to keep your name out in front of customers--who, by, the way, still need your products because they still must feed people. Conventional economic wisdom tells us "spend money to make money." Even the Bible tells what happens to the man who took his master's money and buried it because he was afraid to risk losing it. Perhaps I'm naive, but I think companies can help the economy come back more quickly if they refuse to panic and make only the most prudent of cuts.
Comment by Howard Appell on December 7, 2008 at 8:37am
I agree with all of the above and am glad to hear the encouraging predictiction. I have stated in the past that Florida is the first state to see the effects of a bad economy and the first to see the effects of a good economy. I'll keep you posted from down here. I am seeing some light cracking through recently so keep up the positive thoughts.

Comment by Rod Guinn on December 5, 2008 at 8:25am
Thanks, Susan -- much of what's going on now falls into the category of "That which doesn't kill me makes me stronger". While I fear there will be a few more brand "deaths" before we're done, many of the injuries were self-inflicted long ago (like the leverage which Steak & Ale/Bennigan's parent had carried for years) and were exacerbated -- but not caused -- by the current cycle. When all around are losing their sense of balance, a dose of reason is to be appreciated.




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